Corporate Travel: trends in Brazil for 2030

De Denis Barbosa de Oliveira Neves

Published in English and Portuguese, the objective of this study was to identify possible trends for the corporate travel sector in Brazil for the year 2030. This is an exploratory qualitative research, in which, using the Delphi method, two rounds of questions were carried out, with the participation of 41 experts in the first round and 34 in the second. When examining the results, the following points stood out as most relevant to the participants, separated into 4 categories: (i) Opportunities (Anywhere Office; Personalized Service in the Post-Pandemic; Technology; Events Market); (ii) Threats (New Health Crises; Lack of Public/Private Investment and Qualification in the Sector; Increase in Prices of Products and Services; Post-Pandemic Travel Restrictions); (iii) Post-Pandemic Sector Resumption (forecast of sector sales resumption to 2019 levels by 2024; increase in remote work due to technological advances; gradual recovery and with sectoral specificities; advancement and greater adequacy of health protocols); and (iv) Attractiveness Factors (Bleisure and Duty of Care). Aiming to guide organizations in making strategic decisions for the sector in the coming years, the research generated a series of perspectives for the sector at a national level. Through detailed testimonies, it is hoped that this study will help leaders in the area in their moments of uncertainty, providing greater predictability and adaptation to successive market transformations.

• Idioma: Português
• Editora: Editora Dialética
• Data de lançamento: 3 de abr. de 2024
• ISBN: 9786527010067

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SUMÁRIO

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Créditos

INTRODUCTION

THEORETICAL REFERENCE

METHODOLOGY

RESULTS

CONCLUSION

REFERENCES

APPENDIX

INTRODUÇÃO

LREFERENCIAL TEÓRICO

METODOLOGIA

RESULTADOS

CONCLUSÃO

REFERÊNCIAS

APÊNDICES

Landmarks

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Página de Créditos

Sumário

Bibliografia

INTRODUCTION

Since the second half of the 20th century, changes in the most diverse sectors of society have been posing constant challenges for managers and administrators in terms of predictability and adapting to successive market transformations. This premise highlights the need for future research methods (Porter, 1985; Schwartz, 1991) in the most diverse market sectors, such as oil (Wack, 1985), energy (Eletronorte, 2004), services (Marcial & Grumbach, 2014), to mention but a few. According to Schenatto, Polacinski, Abreu and Abreu (2011, p. 742), future studies are a generic term that encompasses all variants of studies and methods proposed in an attempt to anticipate and/or build the future.

This concern and sense of unpredictability extends to industries such as tourism. According to Zhang, Haiyan, Wen and Liu (2021), despite the sector being considered a strategic market for the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of several nations, recent financial crises (1997 and 2008) and pandemics (SARS) have had severely negative impacts. As one of the industries subject to change more rapidly and profoundly than others (Costa, Fischmann, Boaventura, Muniz and Nery, 2007), the sector was one of the most affected during the COVID-19 pandemic that originated in China in December 2019 (Bapuji, Bakker, Brown, Higgins, Rehbein and Spicer, 2020; Akhyadov, Yudina and Sekerin, 2021; McCartney, 2021). In light of these circumstances, future research techniques and methods have enormous potential in the tourism sector (Benckendorff, 2007).

When analyzing the topic of future studies with the tourism sector as a backdrop (Costa et al., 2007; Marques & Santos, 2012; Paraskevas & Saunders, 2012; Weston & Davies, 2007), the Delphi method is a commonly applied technique (Cunliffe, 2002; Gonçalves, 2006; Moreira & Santos, 2020).

Originating in the 1950s at the RAND Corporation (https://www.rand.org/topics/delphi-method.html, retrieved on March 3, 2021), the Delphi method consists of seeking consensus on a topic through a group of experts, subjecting them to a series of interspersed questionnaires and control in the feedback of opinions (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963, p. 458). Despite the application of this technique to tourism in general and the latent need for future studies, there is a certain lack of academic literature focusing on sectors such as corporate travel. Despite the presence of eBooks and white papers sponsored by companies (Chubb, 2021; Deloitte, 2020; EY, 2020; Sneader and Shubham, 2021) and entities (Business Travel Association - BTA, 2021; Global Business Travel Association - GBTA, 2021) in the sector addressing the subject, such formats raise some concern about research bias, as well as a possible lack of rigor and transparency in the techniques applied (Douglas, 2008).

The corporate travel sector includes any and all trips made by an employee of an organization who has a substantial travel budget, requiring management and control (Lubbe, 2000). Heavily impacted by COVID-19 and considered a facilitator for international business and investment (Altman, 2020), the sector divides opinion on what lies ahead with the end of the pandemic. While leaders of the largest companies in the industry understand that the evolution of technology and the encouragement of consumption are positively correlated (McCartney, 2020), others believe that the change in behavior from face-to-face to virtual could permanently reduce the amount of travel (Bigarelli, 2021; Schlangenstein, Dey and Eckhouse, 2020).

In the national scenario, as the situation worsened initially in China and with the first cases recorded in Brazil, companies such as Vale, Petrobras, among others suspended their trips to China between January and February 2020 and restrictions were imposed on other locations (Bouças et al., 2020). With the year marked by an avalanche of travel cancellations (Bouças, 2020) and financial aid to the airline industry (Rittner, 2020), companies such as corporate travel agencies or TMCs (Travel Management Companies) did not go unscathed. According to ABRACORP (Brazilian Association of Corporate Travel Agencies), there was a 67.4% drop in revenue (BRL 3.7 billion) compared to 2019 and 39.6% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to 2020 (Favaro, 2021). Furthermore, as the distance between the employee and the company increases due to distancing protocols, trends such as hybrid work ¹ and bleisure² are becoming increasingly consolidated (Bouças, 2021). According to Bigarelli (2021), the level of monitoring in the post-pandemic could also increase the degree of use of videoconferencing technologies, intensify security protocols and drastically reduce the amount of travel.

Given this context, the study aims to collect and analyze possible trends for the corporate travel sector in Brazil, with 2030 as the time horizon. This contribution seeks to help the industry in the next decade, guiding it in making strategic decisions (Schenatto et al., 2011) and adding to the academic repertoire through the Delphi method (Bayer, Siller and Fehringer, 2017).

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1 Face-to-face and virtual.

2 A combination of the terms business and leisure.

THEORETICAL REFERENCE

Future Studies

According Schenatto et al. (2011), future studies are:

...a broad term covering all activities related to improving understanding of the future consequences of current developments and choices (Amara & Salanik, 1972). It can also be said that it is a multidisciplinary field, related to a wide range of visions of possible, probable or preferred futures (Assakul, 2003). (Schenatto, 2011, p. 742).

When researching prospecting methods, Yoshida, Wright and Spers (2013) describe the following techniques for studying the future: (i) Bibliometric analysis; (ii) Scenarios; (iii) Mathematical methods; (iv) Expert lecture; (v) Market research; (vi) Forecasts and projections by executives, sales force and distributors; (vii) Technological roadmap and (viii) Delphi:

(i) Bibliometric analysis: A method for counting terms in bibliographic content, which aids the decision-making process by allowing the exploration, organization and analysis of large masses of data. Identification of the number of times terms are cited, and the growth rate of this number, would indicate the level of research activity on a prospecting topic. Typical applications are for tracking research trends or identifying emerging technologies;

(ii) Scenarios: It consists of constructing, in a creative, structured and disciplined way, a narrative about possible future contexts applicable to the strategic analysis of organizations. The method is not used to find a correct forecasting of what the future will be like. It aims to add more information to the process, improve the data and thus understand the decisions involved so that they can be made in line with what has been prospected, and thus achieve objectives related to the future. They can take a qualitative approach (emphasizing the analytical and creative power of people) or a quantitative one (computer simulations are made using probabilities and values assigned to the variables considered in the scenario models);

(iii) Mathematical models: They relate variables to each other as association or causation, since they focus on enabling the association between variables or the identification of a causal relationship between them, including: correlation, regression, econometric models, extrapolation of historical data, among others;

(iv) Expert lecture: A technique that is used in combination with other methods, often with those that use the judgment and opinion of people, using personal interaction as a basis for judgment and the opinion of people. The interaction between people makes it possible to explore different opinions and bring them together in order to represent the future. The expert lecture method is well used because it allows you to ask questions, clarify doubts and discuss the information with the expert present;

(v) Market research: Methods that use count estimates, propensity to consume or use a certain product or service in different markets segmented by a criterion of interest to the researcher, allowing a clear delimitation as a prospecting method, by providing a means by which marketing planning can be carried out;

(vi) Forecasts and projections by executives, sales force and distributors: They use people’s forecasts, commonly used to estimate future demand, using techniques such as analysis of purchasing intentions, composition of the opinions of sales forces, consultation with experts and sales analysis as a complement;

(vii) Technological roadmap: Mapping technology by means of a graphic view, over time, of the relationships between various components related to technologies, with the products that incorporate them, with the areas of the organization that apply and use them and, finally, with consumer markets. The method makes it possible to improve the vision of the future environment of technologies; and

(viii) Delphi: The basic concept consists of consulting a group of experts on a given topic and its possible future states. The consultation is conducted by means of questionnaires, applied in more than one round of consultation in order to achieve a convergence of responses. By preserving the anonymity of the respondents, the aim is to avoid biased opinions with the answers of an expert with a high reputation. At each round, feedback is given to the respondents and a new consultation is made, allowing the respondent to calibrate his or her judgment.

Strategic decision

According to Eisenhardt and Zbaracki (1992), a strategic decision is understood as the set of intentional choices or programmed responses to issues that significantly affect the health and survival of the organization. The most common examples are decisions to develop a new product, enter a new market, restructure the organization or position it in a different market, etc. (Hall, 2004; Liberman-Yaconi, Hooper and Hutchings, 2010; Paprika, 2006).

According to Eisenhardt (1989), operationally the decision becomes strategic when it involves strategic positioning, presents high risks, involves several organizational functions and is considered to be representative of the organization’s decisions (Eisenhardt, 1989, p. 545). According to Bataglia and Yu (2008), a decision becomes strategic when:

... considered important by senior managers in terms of the actions taken, the resources committed or the precedents established. In addition, the decision-making process is unstructured, i.e. it is new, uncertain, has not happened before; for him there is no explicit and predetermined set of ordered responses in the organization. (Bataglia & Yu, 2008, p. 90).

According to Hunger and Wheelen (2002), as organizations deal with uncertain environments and become larger and more complex: . . . it becomes increasingly harder to make strategic decisions, which generally have no precedent to follow, commit significant resources, require a high degree of commitment and affect operational aspects. (Hunger & Wheelen, 2002, p. 61).

When studying the synchronization, strategic decision making with formal strategic planning, Bataglia and Yu (2008) identify two central independent dimensions for strategic decision making: (i) bounded rationality and (ii) organizational politics.

(i) (i) Bounded Rationality: According to Bataglia and Yu (2008), bounded rationality is based on the assumption that human behavior is calculated and instrumental. Actors in a choice situation have predetermined objectives and seek appropriate information to establish alternative courses of action (Bataglia & Yu, 2008, p. 91). Figure 1 shows the General Model of the Strategic Decision-Making Process proposed by Mintzberg, Raisinghani and Théorêt (1976), consisting of three simple, non-sequential phases: identification, development and selection. Considering that each phase has its own routines, the authors structured their model as follows: (a) Recognition (opportunities, problems and crises are recognized); (b) Diagnosis (the available information is organized and any new information is gathered to formulate the problem); (c) Search (used to look for ready-made or semi-ready-made solutions in the environment outside the organization); (d) Design (used to develop customized solutions; also used to modify existing solutions outside the organization); (e) Pre-selection (used to eliminate what is unfeasible when the search process generates more external solutions than it would be possible to evaluate); (f) Evaluation (appears in three modes: value judgment, when an individual